UPDATE: Nor'easter Strengthening

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey for 6-12 inches of snow by Thursday morning. The Warning is in effect until 8AM Thursday.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

National Weather Service Alerts:
         -The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Warning for much of, NJ for 6-9 inches of snow for Northwestern New Jersey, 8-12 for much of New Jersey, with 2-6 inches across extreme Southeastern New Jersey, and along the immediate coastline of Southeastern New Jersey.

         -The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 7-11 inches of snow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
OVERVIEW
         Strengthening low pressure off the mid-atlantic coast is resulting in area of rain, sleet, and snow. All snow is expected tonight with heavy accumulations.

SNOWFALL
         The track of the storm is not quite as far Northwest as I had initially thought, but its not as far Southeast as what the models were doing with it yesterday. Therefor overall precipitation amounts have gone up area wide, and also shifted now to cover southeast New Jersey. 6-12 inches of snow is likely area wide, with the lowest amounts acorss Southeastern New Jersey.

         I do want to urge Thundersnow is likely across much of New Jersey this evening into the overnight. Snowfall rates will be in the 1-2 inch range for the most part, but in thundersnow snowfall rates will be as high 4 inches per hour. Travel this evening into the early morning hours is strongly discouraged.

Yet ANOTHER Nor'easter To Impact New Jersey

Alerts:
CPV Weather
         -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey for 6-10 inches of snow across Northern and Central New Jersey back into Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow for much of Southeastern and Coastal New Jersey by Thursday morning. The Warning is in effect from 6AM Wednesday until 6AM Thursday.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

National Weather Service Alerts:
         -The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all but Cape May County, NJ for the potential of 3-8 inches across Southern and extreme Northwestern New Jersey, with 4-10 inches possible across portions of Central, and North Central New Jersey.

         -The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northeastern New Jersey for the potential of 6 or more inches of snow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:
OVERVIEW
         A 1008mb low pressure system over the far Western Florida panhandle will continue to move Northeast, and strengthen off the mid-Atlantic coast, and track over or just slightly east of Cape Cod by Thursday. This will bring accumulations snow to much of New Jersey.

SNOWFALL
         This will be tricky, as most models agree on a track that I dont feel is right. Only few people including myself agree strongly against the models, and feel the track is too far east. This includes the great Chief long range forecaster Joe Bastardi from Accuweather, the leader of SnoBoy weather, David Claghorn, and myself Josh Ramsdell of Champlain Valley Weather. I am sure there are a few other forecasters out there that believe in the track that we agree on, but none that I know of off the top of my head. Those of us forecasting a stronger track are basing it off of more then just what the weather models show to us at face value. The fact that there is a big ridge off the west coast of the US, along with the status of the NAO argue for a further west track. Not to mention all storm systems this year have tracked further Northwest then modeled. I would expect weather models to finally start to correct substantially further west by the 0Z run of the models.

         With the further west track this means that Southern and Coastal New Jersey will start off or change to rain, the tricky part is once the storm system is far enough to the Northeast of you the backlash snows will move in and hit hard. Numerous models are indicating these tremendously heavy back lash snows to hit primarily the eastern half of New Jersey, which would indicate my 3-6 inch amounts on my snow map are wrong. But I feel with this storm system tracking further Northwest these backlash snows will push further Northwest and effect the Western half and Northern portions of New Jersey. So at this point I have places much of that area in a 6-10 inch range. Once I can determine where these strong backlash snows will set up, then some areas may have to be placed in a 10+ inch range. Especially across Northeastern New Jersey. I do want to urge though, if the model in fact do end up being correct, this would place nearly all of New Jersey in a 6-12 inch snowfall. Regardless of model support one thing is certain, a period of very heavy snow will occur later Wednesday with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour possible. So its us few vs. the weather models. Take your pick! Stay tuned for further updates on this developing winter storm.

Nor'easter To Hit New Jersey Tuesday Night to Wednesday Morning

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey for 6-10 inches of snow. The Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 1PM Tuesday Until 7AM Wednesday.

         The National Weather Service office in Upton NY, has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 7-14 inches of snow. The Warning is in effect through Wednesday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of New Jersey for 5-9 inches of snow. The Warning is in effect through Wednesday morning.

         The National Weather Service in Mt. Holly has issued a Winter Storm Watch for extreme Northwest New Jersey, and Coastal New Jersey, from Coastal Ocean, south to Coastal Cape May County. The potential exists for snow totals in excess of 4 inches in the Watch area.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Two pieces of energy are expected to merge off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula and rapidly strengthen into a significant Nor'easter as it moves Northeast towards Eastern Long Island. This will result in moderate to heavy snow accumulations.

         Currently there are two different scenarios that could unfold for this system, as weather models are not in full agreement. The first scenario would be the low pressure forming near the Delmarva and slowly intensifying pushing Northeast away from the coast, bringing moderate to heavy snow accumulations to the area. The second scenario is that the storm forms near the Delmarva and rapidly intensifies and moves more North-Northeast and causes mixing at the coast, and significant snowfall accumulations across the Western half of New Jersey. At this point I will split the track down the middle and go with moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations for the entire state. A widespread 6-10 inches of snow is likely across the region with the highest amounts across Northeastern New Jersey, and the lowest amounts across Southern New Jersey.

         This storm will be substantially weaker then the post Christmas day storm, so while some blowing and drifting of snow is possible, it wont be as extreme. Winds at there highest may gust near 35MPH, mainly along the coast. I will continue to monitor trends for the potential of mixing at the coast, which would hold down on snowfall amounts along the coast. Either way get ready for some snow and Stay tuned for further updates on this storm system.

UPDATE: Blizzard Starting For New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for all of New Jersey for 12-20 inches of snow across the eastern half of New Jersey with 6-12 inches possible across Western New Jersey. Along with the heavy snow, winds in the 25-35MPH range with gusts 50MPH inland to 60MPH near the coast, isolated higher gusts along the coastline are possible. The Blizzard Warning is in effect until 6AM Monday.

         The National Weather Service office in Upton NY, has issued a Blizzard Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 15-20 inches of snow with localized amounts to 2 feet, and winds in the 25-35MPH range, and gusts of 40-60MPH.

         The National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, NJ has issued a Blizzard Warning for portions of Eastern New Jersey for 12-18 inches of snow with winds 20-30MPH with gusts 40-45MPH. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the remainder of New Jersey for 8-12 inches across Western portions of New Jersey, to 12-18 inches across Eastern portions of New Jersey, along with wind gusts to near 40MPH.

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         A moisture laden, and rapidly strengthening storm system will continue to move Northeast and up the coast, this will result in Blizzard conditions across much of New Jersey.

         Snow has already overspread much of New Jersey. Snow will continue to intensify and become heavy at times today, with the heaviest snow late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Winds will also continue to increase this afternoon and evening. Snow amounts may have to be adjusted upward, especially along the coast where isolated amounts to near 2 feet are very possible. This is a very dangerous storm, and you shouldn't travel unless you have and emergency. Snow drifts could end up as high as 6 feet in some areas by Monday morning. Stay tuned for further updates.

Blizzard To Rock New Jersey From Sunday To Monday

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for all of New Jersey for 12-20 inches of snow across the eastern half of New Jersey with 6-12 inches possible across Western New Jersey. Along with the heavy snow winds in the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 60MPH, isolated higher gusts along the coastline are possible. The Blizzard Warning is in effect from 10AM Sunday, until 6AM Monday.

         The National Weather Service office in Upton NY, has issued a Blizzard Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 11-16 inches of snow, with winds in the 20-35MPH range, and gusts of 40-55MPH.

         The National Weather Service in Mt. Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the remainder of New Jersey for 8-12 inches across Western portions of New Jersey, to 12-18 inches across Eastern portions of New Jersey, along with winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts to 40MPH.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         A moisture laden, and strengthening low pressure system currently in the Northeast gulf of Mexico, will continue to move Northeast, and off the Southeast coast of the United States tonight. This low pressure center will then turn North-Northeast, and perhaps even due North for a while, until south of Long Island, and then turn back towards the Northeast, and up by Cape Cod Monday morning. This is going to result in heavy snow, and strong winds.

         Light snow should develop overnight across Southern New Jersey, and then spread across Northern regions by Sunday morning. Snow will become heavy late Sunday afternoon, into the evening hours. Snowfall rates of up to 4 inches per hour could fall for a time late Sunday, especially near the coast. The heaviest snowfall amounts will be near the coast, with the lighter amounts further to the west. Snowfall amounts should range from 6-12 inches across the western half of New Jersey, with 12-20 inches possible across the eastern half of New Jersey. Localized amounts to 2 feet are possible, especially along the Northern half of the New Jersey coast. Along with heavy snow, will be strong winds. Winds will increase into the 25-35MPH range with gusts up to 60MPH possible along the coast. Further west, gusts in the 50MPH range are possible. These winds combined with heavy snow will result in near zero visibilities. This is going to be a dangerous storm. Travel is going to be severely impacted by this storm, and it is recommended not to travel during this storm. Also be prepared for the potential of power outages. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing winter storm.

BLIZZARD UPDATE

11:50PM UPDATE...




         Radar trends continue to indicate heavy snow falling across Northern New Jersey, with moderate to heavy snow now developing across almost the entire state. With totals in the North already nearing max amounts I have increased snow totals, for Northern New Jersey. Northern New Jersey will see 18-24 inches with 24 or more inches of snow across extreme Northern/ Northwestern New Jersey. North Central New Jersey can expect 12-18 inches, with 6-12 across Central, and Southern New Jersey, and 3-6 across Southern/ Southeastern New Jersey. On the new map above, you will notice the increase in total, but I also want to point out that I have slightly decreased totals across portions of Central New Jersey. The Snowcast map above is freshly updated. Also all alerts remain the same.

         With snow now coming down moderate to heavy, the winds are continuing to increase as well, regional observations are showing that across the entire state of New Jersey winds are for the most part sustained in the 20-30MPH range with gusts in the 35-40MPH range. Winds will continue to intensify into the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 50-60MPH range.

         While this dangerous conditions are ongoing, it is urged not to travel. If you must travel make sure you have a winter survival kit in your vehicle, leave plenty of room between you and other vehicles, and drive deffensivley.


Previous Post Below...








    Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service office out of Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of New Jersey for 12-18 inches for Northern, and North Central New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Central New Jersey, and 3-6 inches across Southern New Jersey, along with winds in the 25-30MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Warning for extreme Northeastern New Jersey for 15-20 inches of snow.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for all of New Jersey, for 12-18 inches across Western, and Northwestern New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Northeastern, Central, and Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow across Southeastern New Jersey. Along with the snow will be winds in the 20-35MPH range with gusts 50-60MPH, with the highest gusts expected along the coastline.

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Everything remains on track for the most part. I have upgraded the Blizzard Watch to a Blizzard Warning for Southeastern New Jersey. While snow amounts will be lower in these area, the wind and snow combined, will result in dangerous winter conditions across the area. That about all for an update, everything seems good from yesterdays forecast.

Yet Another Blizzard For New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service offices that cover New Jersey have issued Winter Storm Watches for the entire state, for the potential of significant snow, and wind.

Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of New Jersey, and the Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Southeastern New Jersey. The potential exists for 12-18 inches across Western, and Northwestern New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Northeaster, Central, and Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow across Southeastern New Jersey. Along with the snow will be winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts 55-60MPH with isolated gusts to 70MPH along the coastline.




    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Model consistency has made me confident enough to issue a Blizzard Warning for much of New Jersey. A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for southeastern New Jersey, where I have less confidence in the forecast.

Rain showers should develop late this afternoon into this evening as low pressure from the southeast moves of the coast, and begins to intensify. Rain showers will change over to snow showers, and a steady snow overnight tonight, and snow will be heavy at times Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will be increasing Thursday morning, and will be sustained in the 25-40MPH range with gusts 55-60MPH with isolated gusts to 70MPH along the immediate coast. These type of winds combined with snow totals of 6-12 and 12-18 inches, will result in extreme blowing and drifting of snow, with visibilities frequently reduced to near zero. There could be a rain snow mix across Northeastern New Jersey, and the Coastline down into South eastern New Jersey. Stay tuned for updates on this developing weather situation.