BLIZZARD UPDATE

11:50PM UPDATE...




         Radar trends continue to indicate heavy snow falling across Northern New Jersey, with moderate to heavy snow now developing across almost the entire state. With totals in the North already nearing max amounts I have increased snow totals, for Northern New Jersey. Northern New Jersey will see 18-24 inches with 24 or more inches of snow across extreme Northern/ Northwestern New Jersey. North Central New Jersey can expect 12-18 inches, with 6-12 across Central, and Southern New Jersey, and 3-6 across Southern/ Southeastern New Jersey. On the new map above, you will notice the increase in total, but I also want to point out that I have slightly decreased totals across portions of Central New Jersey. The Snowcast map above is freshly updated. Also all alerts remain the same.

         With snow now coming down moderate to heavy, the winds are continuing to increase as well, regional observations are showing that across the entire state of New Jersey winds are for the most part sustained in the 20-30MPH range with gusts in the 35-40MPH range. Winds will continue to intensify into the 25-40MPH range with gusts in the 50-60MPH range.

         While this dangerous conditions are ongoing, it is urged not to travel. If you must travel make sure you have a winter survival kit in your vehicle, leave plenty of room between you and other vehicles, and drive deffensivley.


Previous Post Below...








    Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service office out of Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of New Jersey for 12-18 inches for Northern, and North Central New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Central New Jersey, and 3-6 inches across Southern New Jersey, along with winds in the 25-30MPH range with gusts up to 50MPH.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Warning for extreme Northeastern New Jersey for 15-20 inches of snow.

         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for all of New Jersey, for 12-18 inches across Western, and Northwestern New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Northeastern, Central, and Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow across Southeastern New Jersey. Along with the snow will be winds in the 20-35MPH range with gusts 50-60MPH, with the highest gusts expected along the coastline.

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Everything remains on track for the most part. I have upgraded the Blizzard Watch to a Blizzard Warning for Southeastern New Jersey. While snow amounts will be lower in these area, the wind and snow combined, will result in dangerous winter conditions across the area. That about all for an update, everything seems good from yesterdays forecast.

Yet Another Blizzard For New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         The National Weather Service offices that cover New Jersey have issued Winter Storm Watches for the entire state, for the potential of significant snow, and wind.

Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of New Jersey, and the Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Southeastern New Jersey. The potential exists for 12-18 inches across Western, and Northwestern New Jersey, 6-12 inches across Northeaster, Central, and Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow across Southeastern New Jersey. Along with the snow will be winds in the 25-40MPH range with gusts 55-60MPH with isolated gusts to 70MPH along the coastline.




    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Model consistency has made me confident enough to issue a Blizzard Warning for much of New Jersey. A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for southeastern New Jersey, where I have less confidence in the forecast.

Rain showers should develop late this afternoon into this evening as low pressure from the southeast moves of the coast, and begins to intensify. Rain showers will change over to snow showers, and a steady snow overnight tonight, and snow will be heavy at times Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will be increasing Thursday morning, and will be sustained in the 25-40MPH range with gusts 55-60MPH with isolated gusts to 70MPH along the immediate coast. These type of winds combined with snow totals of 6-12 and 12-18 inches, will result in extreme blowing and drifting of snow, with visibilities frequently reduced to near zero. There could be a rain snow mix across Northeastern New Jersey, and the Coastline down into South eastern New Jersey. Stay tuned for updates on this developing weather situation.

Late Week Blizzard Looking More Likely

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         With decent model agreement, on the upcoming storm, I have been confident enough in the forecast to issue a Blizzard Watch for all of New Jersey. Currently the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of New Jersey, far Northeastern New Jersey who are under the control of the National Weather Service in New York, New York do not have a Winter Storm Watch at this time.

         This wont be a very detailed post, as weather is busy across much of the Northeast today. Anyway, a low pressure system forming over Texas will ride along the gulf coast and off the North/South Carolina Coast, and then begin to back slowly toward Long Island/ Southern New England as it explosively intensifies. Generally with a track this close to the area, warm air would be a major concern, while it is a concern, its not a big one at this time, due to the fact the trough is going to go negative tilt, which will help bring in cold air on the western side of the system.

         Snow should develop late Wednesday night or Early Thursday morning and become more widespread, the snow will likely start off all rain or a mix, but rapidly change over to snow. Total snow accumulations at this point are hard to predict due to the brunt of the storm being over 36 hours away. At this time though accumulations of 6-10 inches along the coast, and 10+ inches inland are possible. Along with the snow, winds will increase significantly, sustained at 25-40MPH with gusts up to 60MPH across interior NJ, are possibly with gusts potentially reaching 70MPH along the immediate coast. These type of winds combined with snow will result in zero visibilities. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation. Please remember though there is still time for forecasts to change, and the overall track is key to how much snow and wind will occur.

Potential Late Week Blizzard

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         This is not a joke, or a previous post, this is an all new storm, that will bring the potential for yet another major dumping of snow across New Jersey, this storm also looks much more serious as far as winds go. Stronger then the previous Blizzards this year across this area. While there is still plenty of time to go, its looking more and more likely New Jersey is going to see yet again, another Blizzard.

         At this point I am not going to issue any type of alerts for the area as the storm is still a couple days away. Current models indicate a low pressure system ranging from 980mb to 976mb to back in from the Ocean and stall out somewhere from NYC to Albany, or perhaps further east and over Southern New England. Due to the fact the trough over the eastern us will go negative, this means that cold air will likely be able to blast in to New Jersey although the track is close to land. While I don't want to go overboard, current indications point to storm totals in excess of 12 inches for much of the area. If this storm strengthens to what is being shown by several models, then sustained winds of 25-40MPH with gusts to 60MPH are a very real possibility. Depending on how strong this storm gets, wind gusts of 60MPH may be too low. I will keep everyone updated on this serious developing weather situation.

UPDATE 3: Blizzard Going Strong Across New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         All alerts remains the same as in the previous post. Please read previous post for those details. Or you can look at the maps above. The 2 alert maps have not been updated since this morning because there has been no changes needed to them.

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Everything is on track for the most part. This update is to only tweak snowfall amounts once again. In the grand scheme of things it hasn't really changed all that much, but I had to push the 12-18 inch area to cover most of New Jersey. The reason being unbelievable strong mesoscale bands producing in excess of 3 inches per hour snowfall rates just moved through Monmouth, and Ocean Counties, and that is now sliding south. Rates have lightened up only slightly, but are still likely in the 1-3 inch per hour range across that region. Thus snow totals will be 12-18 inches across much of the area with some localized areas of 18-24 inches, especially across Central, and North Central New Jersey. The 18-24 inch amounts are too localized to paint on the map, but if snow continues this heavy then I may have to add that onto the map.

         I would like to urge though for Monmouth, and Ocean Counties, along and just inland from the coast snowfall amounts may be locally lower then 12-18 inches, its highly dependant on how strong and how long any mesobands set up.

         The wind aspect of this storm is pretty much right on track as well. Numerous wind gusts of 35-45MPH have been reported, especially near, and along the coast, where locally higher gusts have occurred. The winds will continue to strengthen and gust in the 40-50MPH range, region wide. Significant blowing and drifting of the snow is likely. Stay tuned for any further updates.

         Please feel free to post your measured or estimated snowfall totals in the comment section.

UPDATE 2: New Jersey Blizzard

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather continues a Blizzard Warning for all of New Jersey. Details follow in discussion below.

         The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of New Jersey for 12-22 inches of snow across Central, and North Central New Jersey, with 8-16 inches possible in Southern New Jersey, and along the coast. Winds in the Blizzard Warning area are expected to see gusts in the 40-50MPH range. Also a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Northern New Jersey, for the potential of 10-18 inches of snow with some blowing and drifting with wind gusts in the 35-45MPH range.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Blizzard Warning for portions of Northeastern New Jersey for 10-16 inches of snow, and strong frequent wind gusts to 40MPH. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the remainder of extreme Northeastern New Jersey for 10-16 inches of snow, with occasional gusts to near 35MPH.

    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         For this update, I issued a Blizzard Warning to cover all of New Jersey, and adjusted snow totals a tiny bit more along the coast, and Southeastern New Jersey, where warmer air has intruded. This is due to the low pressure center moving slightly further to the west then expected. Already though widespread 3-6 inches of snow with isolated amounts of up to 9 inches have fallen with the first batch of snow. An additional 9-12 inches of snow, with locally up to 15 inches can be expected across Northern and Central New Jersey, with an additional 4-8 inches with locally up to 12 inches across Southern, and Coastal New Jersey. This will push totals across the Northern and Central areas into the 12-18 inch range, with isolated 24 inch amounts, and total amounts of 7-15 inches with isolated 18 inch amounts across Southern, and Coastal New Jersey.

         Along with heavy snow today, winds will be gusting in the 40-50MPH range, with locally higher gusts along the immediate coastline. This will produce widespread blowing, and drifting snow. It is strongly recommended to stay off the roads this afternoon. Although snow has tapered off to light mixed precipitation in many areas, snow is already rapidly re-developing. It wont be long before the snow will come down heavy once again. Use extreme caution, and stay tuned for further updates.

UPDATE: Another Blizzard For New Jersey

    This post was edited at 4:00PM to update timing of precipitation...








    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather continues a Blizzard Warning for much of the eastern half of New Jersey, and a Winter Storm Warning for Western New Jersey. Details follow in discussion below.

         The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey continues a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey, for the potential of 10-18 inches of snow, across much of the Northern, and Central Portions of the State, with 4-8 inches possible across extreme Southeastern, New Jersey. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties of New Jersey, for winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 45MPH. If these winds occur slightly sooner, as the heaviest snow is falling then a Blizzard Warning will be issued by the National Weather Service.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 8-13 inches of snow, and strong gusty winds. A Blizzard Warning may be needed for these areas of New Jersey as well.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Things remain on track for the most part. Models have shifted ever so slightly north again, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about sleet/ rain mix, especially for coastal areas, and southeastern New Jersey. This could cut down on snow totals significantly. If the 12Z NAM model were to verify then much less snow for a large portion of New Jersey would be in store. But I don't feel it will warm up quite that much. On the other hand if the cold air could hold in just tough enough, then coastal areas could hit the 12-18 inch mark. Unfortunately we will have to wait an see how this unfolds. One thing that is certain, is that everyone is going to see some snow, and winds.

         You can expect light to occasionally moderate snow/sleet/rain mix later this evening across much of central, and southern New Jersey, the mix will be most likely across coastal, and southeastern New Jersey, while mainly snow showers occur across Northern New Jersey. Snow will increase in intensity overnight tonight, but may taper off briefly as the new low pressure system off the Delmarva Peninsula explosively intensifies, there should be 4-8 inches of snow on the ground before any lull in the action occurs. By Wednesday mid-morning any lull in the action will abruptly come to an end as snow rapidly re-intensifies over the region. This time winds will increase as well. Winds will be in the 20-30MPH range with gusts as high as 50MPH along the coast. Further inland gusts to 40MPH are more likely. These strong winds combined with heavy snow will result in Blizzard conditions for much of New Jersey. Total snowfall accumulations by Wednesday night will range from 12-18 inches across much of the region, with 6-12 inches likely across far Northeastern New Jersey due to drier air, and 6-12 inches across Southeastern and Coastal New Jersey due to lower snow ratios, and the likelihood of mixed precipitation. There could be an area of locally lower amounts of 3-6 inches across portions of Cape May County. Stay tuned for further updates.

Another Blizzard On The Way For New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of the eastern half of New Jersey, and a Winter Storm Warning for Western New Jersey. Details follow in discussion below.

         The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of the State except Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties, for the potential of 10-18 inches of snow, with some sleet possible in the coastal areas, and Southern New Jersey. For Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties of New Jersey, for winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 45MPH. If these winds occur slightly sooner as the heaviest snow is falling then a Blizzard Warning will be issued by the National Weather Service.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northeastern New Jersey for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow, and strong gusty winds. A Blizzard Warning may be needed for these areas of New Jersey as well.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Another significant Blizzard will impact the region. The only difference with this storm, is the strength, and slightly warmer air.

         Currently, models remain in fairly decent agreement, but still differ slightly with some important factors. Models show a low pressure system forming near the Gulf coast, and rapidly move North-Northeast and towards the mid-west. This low will then transfer its energy near the coast of Virginia. These type of storms (that generate a new low along the coast) are classified in meteorological terms as a "Miller B" storm. The previous storm that struck New Jersey was known as a "Miller A" storm, which is when the low pressure originates in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks up across the Southeast US, and off the mid-Atlantic coast, and usually out to sea. "Miller B" Type storms are known better for effecting New England more then the mid-Atlantic, but have been known to produce significant storms across the mid-Atlantic as well. Just not as often, which worries me a bit about the forecast. But with good model consensus, there is no way to deny at this time, heavy snow for all of New Jersey.

         Anyway, after the low reforms off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is expected to bomb out, and rapidly intensify. This will likely cause significant mesoscale banding (intense precipitation) across the region. The rapid strengthening will also likely cause strong winds, and result in Blizzard conditions for much of New Jersey.

         This storm is going to have warmer air, so some sleet or rain could occur for a while at the onset of precipitation. Never-the-less, mixed precip. will change to all snow across much of the region overnight Tuesday, and become heavy at times Wednesday, there could be a brief lull in the action mid-Wednesday morning before the snow increases once again. The Snow will continue through much of the day Wednesday and tapper off during the late evening hours. Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon, and remain fairly strong into Thursday morning, with gusts up to 50MPH possible, the strongest winds will be across the eastern half of New Jersey, closest to the low pressure center. Total snowfall accumulation by late Wednesday night will range from 12-18 inches across much of the region, with 6-12 inches possible in far Northern New Jersey, and 6-12 inches along the Southeast Coast of New Jersey. If warmer air makes it further north, then snowfall accumulations would like be lower, especially for coastal areas, and southern New Jersey. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.