Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Late Week Blizzard Looking More Likely






    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         With decent model agreement, on the upcoming storm, I have been confident enough in the forecast to issue a Blizzard Watch for all of New Jersey. Currently the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of New Jersey, far Northeastern New Jersey who are under the control of the National Weather Service in New York, New York do not have a Winter Storm Watch at this time.

         This wont be a very detailed post, as weather is busy across much of the Northeast today. Anyway, a low pressure system forming over Texas will ride along the gulf coast and off the North/South Carolina Coast, and then begin to back slowly toward Long Island/ Southern New England as it explosively intensifies. Generally with a track this close to the area, warm air would be a major concern, while it is a concern, its not a big one at this time, due to the fact the trough is going to go negative tilt, which will help bring in cold air on the western side of the system.

         Snow should develop late Wednesday night or Early Thursday morning and become more widespread, the snow will likely start off all rain or a mix, but rapidly change over to snow. Total snow accumulations at this point are hard to predict due to the brunt of the storm being over 36 hours away. At this time though accumulations of 6-10 inches along the coast, and 10+ inches inland are possible. Along with the snow, winds will increase significantly, sustained at 25-40MPH with gusts up to 60MPH across interior NJ, are possibly with gusts potentially reaching 70MPH along the immediate coast. These type of winds combined with snow will result in zero visibilities. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing situation. Please remember though there is still time for forecasts to change, and the overall track is key to how much snow and wind will occur.

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