Alerts:CPV Weather -Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey for 6-10 inches of snow across Northern and Central New Jersey back into Southwestern New Jersey, and 3-6 inches of snow for much of Southeastern and Coastal New Jersey by Thursday morning. The Warning is in effect from 6AM Wednesday until 6AM Thursday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Weather Service Alerts: -The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all but Cape May County, NJ for the potential of 3-8 inches across Southern and extreme Northwestern New Jersey, with 4-10 inches possible across portions of Central, and North Central New Jersey.
-The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northeastern New Jersey for the potential of 6 or more inches of snow.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Champlain Valley Weather Discussion:OVERVIEW A 1008mb low pressure system over the far Western Florida panhandle will continue to move Northeast, and strengthen off the mid-Atlantic coast, and track over or just slightly east of Cape Cod by Thursday. This will bring accumulations snow to much of New Jersey.
SNOWFALL This will be tricky, as most models agree on a track that I dont feel is right. Only few people including myself agree strongly against the models, and feel the track is too far east. This includes the great Chief long range forecaster Joe Bastardi from Accuweather, the leader of SnoBoy weather, David Claghorn, and myself Josh Ramsdell of Champlain Valley Weather. I am sure there are a few other forecasters out there that believe in the track that we agree on, but none that I know of off the top of my head. Those of us forecasting a stronger track are basing it off of more then just what the weather models show to us at face value. The fact that there is a big ridge off the west coast of the US, along with the status of the NAO argue for a further west track. Not to mention all storm systems this year have tracked further Northwest then modeled. I would expect weather models to finally start to correct substantially further west by the 0Z run of the models.
With the further west track this means that Southern and Coastal New Jersey will start off or change to rain, the tricky part is once the storm system is far enough to the Northeast of you the backlash snows will move in and hit hard. Numerous models are indicating these tremendously heavy back lash snows to hit primarily the eastern half of New Jersey, which would indicate my 3-6 inch amounts on my snow map are wrong. But I feel with this storm system tracking further Northwest these backlash snows will push further Northwest and effect the Western half and Northern portions of New Jersey. So at this point I have places much of that area in a 6-10 inch range. Once I can determine where these strong backlash snows will set up, then some areas may have to be placed in a 10+ inch range. Especially across Northeastern New Jersey. I do want to urge though, if the model in fact do end up being correct, this would place nearly all of New Jersey in a 6-12 inch snowfall. Regardless of model support one thing is certain, a period of very heavy snow will occur later Wednesday with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour possible. So its us few vs. the weather models. Take your pick! Stay tuned for further updates on this developing winter storm.
