Another Blizzard On The Way For New Jersey

    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather has issued a Blizzard Warning for much of the eastern half of New Jersey, and a Winter Storm Warning for Western New Jersey. Details follow in discussion below.

         The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey has issued a Winter Storm Warning for much of the State except Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties, for the potential of 10-18 inches of snow, with some sleet possible in the coastal areas, and Southern New Jersey. For Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties of New Jersey, for winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 45MPH. If these winds occur slightly sooner as the heaviest snow is falling then a Blizzard Warning will be issued by the National Weather Service.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northeastern New Jersey for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow, and strong gusty winds. A Blizzard Warning may be needed for these areas of New Jersey as well.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Another significant Blizzard will impact the region. The only difference with this storm, is the strength, and slightly warmer air.

         Currently, models remain in fairly decent agreement, but still differ slightly with some important factors. Models show a low pressure system forming near the Gulf coast, and rapidly move North-Northeast and towards the mid-west. This low will then transfer its energy near the coast of Virginia. These type of storms (that generate a new low along the coast) are classified in meteorological terms as a "Miller B" storm. The previous storm that struck New Jersey was known as a "Miller A" storm, which is when the low pressure originates in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks up across the Southeast US, and off the mid-Atlantic coast, and usually out to sea. "Miller B" Type storms are known better for effecting New England more then the mid-Atlantic, but have been known to produce significant storms across the mid-Atlantic as well. Just not as often, which worries me a bit about the forecast. But with good model consensus, there is no way to deny at this time, heavy snow for all of New Jersey.

         Anyway, after the low reforms off the mid-Atlantic coast, it is expected to bomb out, and rapidly intensify. This will likely cause significant mesoscale banding (intense precipitation) across the region. The rapid strengthening will also likely cause strong winds, and result in Blizzard conditions for much of New Jersey.

         This storm is going to have warmer air, so some sleet or rain could occur for a while at the onset of precipitation. Never-the-less, mixed precip. will change to all snow across much of the region overnight Tuesday, and become heavy at times Wednesday, there could be a brief lull in the action mid-Wednesday morning before the snow increases once again. The Snow will continue through much of the day Wednesday and tapper off during the late evening hours. Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon, and remain fairly strong into Thursday morning, with gusts up to 50MPH possible, the strongest winds will be across the eastern half of New Jersey, closest to the low pressure center. Total snowfall accumulation by late Wednesday night will range from 12-18 inches across much of the region, with 6-12 inches possible in far Northern New Jersey, and 6-12 inches along the Southeast Coast of New Jersey. If warmer air makes it further north, then snowfall accumulations would like be lower, especially for coastal areas, and southern New Jersey. Stay tuned for further updates on this developing weather situation.