UPDATE: Another Blizzard For New Jersey

    This post was edited at 4:00PM to update timing of precipitation...








    Alert Details:
         Champlain Valley Weather continues a Blizzard Warning for much of the eastern half of New Jersey, and a Winter Storm Warning for Western New Jersey. Details follow in discussion below.

         The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey continues a Winter Storm Warning for all of New Jersey, for the potential of 10-18 inches of snow, across much of the Northern, and Central Portions of the State, with 4-8 inches possible across extreme Southeastern, New Jersey. Also, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal counties of New Jersey, for winds in the 20-30MPH range with gusts up to 45MPH. If these winds occur slightly sooner, as the heaviest snow is falling then a Blizzard Warning will be issued by the National Weather Service.

         The National Weather Service in New York, New York has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Northeastern New Jersey for 8-13 inches of snow, and strong gusty winds. A Blizzard Warning may be needed for these areas of New Jersey as well.


    New Jersey Weather Discussion:
         Things remain on track for the most part. Models have shifted ever so slightly north again, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about sleet/ rain mix, especially for coastal areas, and southeastern New Jersey. This could cut down on snow totals significantly. If the 12Z NAM model were to verify then much less snow for a large portion of New Jersey would be in store. But I don't feel it will warm up quite that much. On the other hand if the cold air could hold in just tough enough, then coastal areas could hit the 12-18 inch mark. Unfortunately we will have to wait an see how this unfolds. One thing that is certain, is that everyone is going to see some snow, and winds.

         You can expect light to occasionally moderate snow/sleet/rain mix later this evening across much of central, and southern New Jersey, the mix will be most likely across coastal, and southeastern New Jersey, while mainly snow showers occur across Northern New Jersey. Snow will increase in intensity overnight tonight, but may taper off briefly as the new low pressure system off the Delmarva Peninsula explosively intensifies, there should be 4-8 inches of snow on the ground before any lull in the action occurs. By Wednesday mid-morning any lull in the action will abruptly come to an end as snow rapidly re-intensifies over the region. This time winds will increase as well. Winds will be in the 20-30MPH range with gusts as high as 50MPH along the coast. Further inland gusts to 40MPH are more likely. These strong winds combined with heavy snow will result in Blizzard conditions for much of New Jersey. Total snowfall accumulations by Wednesday night will range from 12-18 inches across much of the region, with 6-12 inches likely across far Northeastern New Jersey due to drier air, and 6-12 inches across Southeastern and Coastal New Jersey due to lower snow ratios, and the likelihood of mixed precipitation. There could be an area of locally lower amounts of 3-6 inches across portions of Cape May County. Stay tuned for further updates.